tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47656156596125429892011-08-25T05:32:25.076-07:00Research, Analysis, Insights, Ideas and Commentary targeting Alpha - Risk-Adjusted Returns for Traders and Investors. Unconventional Contrarian Investment Ideas for Professional Money Managers, Enterprising Investors, and Opportunistic Traders. Technical Financial Futures Trades, S&P 500 and Treasuries System Trades, Currencies, Closed End Fund Arbitrage, Option Strategies, Special Situations, Short Ideas, Market Timing Trades, Commodities IdeasAllen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.comBlogger241100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-28241211206565002722009-04-27T06:24:00.000-07:002009-04-27T06:26:29.342-07:00

NUE looks good technically only on a short term basis. Positives include – October 08 lows held in November and late feb/early march 09 retest held well above the prior lows. Its also technically positive that the recent move came on solid volume and exhibited good relative strength. The stock’s short term moving averages have also turned up. The best one should say about this chart is that

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-86777548721606419552009-04-27T06:18:00.000-07:002009-04-27T06:24:42.493-07:00

Energy demand continues to deteriorate beyond bearish expectations, yet the ranks of the bulls have swelled as many look past near term supply demand imbalances on the idea that significant and rapid declines in rig counts will lead to equilibrium in supply and demand such that inventories will decline to levels closer to 5 year averages. I don't doubt that will ultimately happen but I do

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-48956142467037174312009-04-03T07:06:00.000-07:002009-04-03T07:12:20.537-07:00

Think the time has come to step off the offensive accelerator and reduce long exposure and increase short exposure; in other words, position more market neutral. The market is up 20% in a month and extended on a short term basis with many economically sensitive names with poor near term prospects and unclear longer term prospects up significantly. The bulls are out in force and shorts are being

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-1449519986407332982009-04-01T08:03:00.000-07:002009-04-01T08:12:36.517-07:00

Oil and Natural Gas equities have rallied on the prospect of an economic recovery, reflation gaining traction and dollar weakness. Although I do understand (and agree) that dollar weakness should act to support all commodities in general, I’m confident that the fundamentals on the whole favor sustained weakness in prices as supply, demand and inventories are all likely to pressure prices both

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-28960421410927817262009-03-19T04:48:00.000-07:002009-03-19T04:49:50.697-07:00

On January 29th of this year, I wrote a comment to a crowd of writers and readers at SeekingAlpha on the semantics of the many Milton Friedman disciples which were essentially arguing that inflation wasn’t inflation unless it was accompanied by simultaneous increase in money supply. Ridiculous I said, because the author wrote what seemed like a 10 page tome which not once mentioned purchasing

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-90086654010412126872009-03-10T23:50:00.000-07:002009-03-11T00:06:53.485-07:00

Still doing my best to get the full site done as soon as I can – its been any day now for a month but I’m making good progress and at the point where I’m polishing it up, working out some programming kinks and testing a few features; it should be done and ready to launch this weekend. Pretty exciting as I think it will be good.In the mean time, I figured I’d share a few quick thoughts on today’s

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-9482577556639881822009-02-23T20:16:00.000-08:002009-02-23T20:26:46.699-08:00

This is a response to an economist who suggested that we weren't really losing many manufacturing jobs and it wasn't a big economic deal to begin with. the guys went on about how we would focus on solid productivity as trumping both massive manufacturing job losses and ewer well paying jobs domestically. Both naive views in my mind so I had to do my best to enlighten the easily convinced:Less

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-71622104891258819042009-02-23T00:20:00.000-08:002009-02-23T00:35:44.210-08:00

Mylan’s comeback is on track! Mylan reported 4Q earnings late last week and the results were excellent. At a time when most long investment theses are deteriorating, this one (http://seekingalpha.com/article/108343-mylan-on-the-comeback-trail) is intact if not strengthened. EPS of $0.26 came on better than expected revenues, margins and cash flow. Although the tax rate was lower than expected

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-7443516019260793052009-02-22T06:43:00.000-08:002009-02-22T06:47:21.373-08:00

I submitted this to another site last week and neglected to post here so here goes. The article's premise is a joke. There were a ton of new activist investors that thought they could buy a big stake and convince operators of businesses to take a shortcut to value creation via some form of financial engineering or another. Most of these guys have gotten smoked many times over because the game is

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-81721348028755154092009-01-29T22:26:00.000-08:002009-01-29T23:09:27.976-08:00

I see a lot of people talking about inflation and deflation being "exclusively a monetary phenomenon" The old Milton Friedman line of reasoning has become an extreme exercise in semantics. These dogmatic economic philosophers preach that persistent general price level increases are not inflation unless accompanied by a substantial increase in money supply. This lacks grounding in truth and

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-14282928779613581132009-01-22T00:22:00.000-08:002009-01-22T00:23:22.183-08:00

The whole idea of using taxpayer money at the Treasury to stabilize the economy and arrest the collateral economic damage which wall street has wrought on main street is either naïve or sinister. Naïve if Paulson and congress really thought this was the most efficient and effective way to restore liquidity and viability to the banking system and thus circumvent unnecessary business failures.

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-77859538437440352932009-01-20T22:36:00.000-08:002009-01-20T22:37:19.110-08:00

I don’t want to belabor the point but wanted to stress the fact that credit, saving spending and investment will be changed for a generation. People will be forced to save more to buy stuff they could previously buy with little or no money down and low interest. Frugality will be a way of life, not just in consumer sector, but also in the business and government sector. And the government (

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-376126653954028292009-01-12T21:06:00.000-08:002009-01-12T21:08:26.657-08:00

Everyone seems to be bashing the 60 minutes story about speculation causing oil to surge to $147. After reading the articles published at SeekingAlpha.com I felt compelled to see how bad this segment was, so I went to the 60 minutes website to take a look see. I expected to see a chop job; but what I saw was an excellent laymen's explanation of how speculators and investors with fiduciary

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-72452972111785878672009-01-07T01:00:00.000-08:002009-01-07T01:04:05.867-08:00

In the last 2 weeks it seems that the bulls are coming out of the woodwork. Don’t get sucked into the idea that you should chase this rally! What may appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel is probably a train. No one seems to have a good idea of what earnings might be, yet all of a sudden, bullishness abounds. Very well managed companies are guiding down multiple times early in a

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-55579756699139101962008-11-26T06:21:00.000-08:002008-11-26T12:13:11.921-08:00

Growth at a reasonable price in healthcare – Mylan on the comeback trailBy Allen Phatimer Thinking about ideas that are somewhat countercyclical in nature but also have a good chance of support from industry specific trends and/or company specific dynamics which can yield cash flow and earnings acceleration lead to me like Mylan (MYL).  I view this as an out of favor name in an out of favor

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-11668989346479378622008-11-18T23:18:00.000-08:002008-11-18T23:23:52.147-08:00

Hologic (HOLX): A top pick in Healthcare for 2009?A quest for value and alpha in well financed, well managed defensive names with solid visibility, reasonable growth prospects and discount valuation leads me to digital mammography and Pap test leader Hologic. The shares are off to historical trough multiples at significant discounts to what appear to be lesser peers. But with a solid quarter,

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-74528181466951965222008-11-15T15:55:00.000-08:002008-11-15T19:46:17.403-08:00

After writing my first few blog posts a good friend of mine suggested I turn it into something bigger and better than a blog full of market rambling. He suggested that incorporating technical and market timing insights and ideas to my fundamental value approach was a good idea and I agreed. Though my specialty is So I took a hiatus and started building a larger website and an almost done with

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-19164283281443243682008-02-11T21:36:00.000-08:002008-02-11T23:16:55.157-08:00

A reader says/asks "Steel stocks look awfully cheap and commodities are running higher again, what do you think about getting long some steel here?" Thanks for the layup comment/question; here's the long and short of what I think.My short answer is: in my opinion, if you are talking about a short term trade, you may be right to want to be long and steel take one more run higher before a

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-82296392117270223932008-02-06T21:36:00.000-08:002008-02-06T23:54:24.193-08:00

Alphatiming is everything! Because of the inherent volatility and mean reversion, we are of the opinion that you are more often than not better off buying pullbacks when trying to get long and selling rallies when trying to get short. Buying break outs and selling breakdowns is fine when your directional bet is correct immediately; however, timing itself is generally a low win rate

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-51850483712757038012008-02-04T22:09:00.000-08:002008-02-04T22:58:45.894-08:00

A substantial move down, a substantial move up and now a game of hurry up and wait to see if we just witnessed a major low in several choice longer term buy candidates. Some think the bottom is in, others think the oversold rally has run its course and has already given way to a resumption of the bear trend.As we discussed last week, its our view that major very tradable and investable lows are

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-16347475320392968242008-01-31T23:31:00.000-08:002008-02-01T00:57:25.624-08:00

This week's trading action in most Financials, Retailers, Homebuilders and Industrials we follow has now traced out what appear to be bottoms that are typical of major lows. Whether these are major lows or not we won't know right away. Tough call as the critical element of time is an issue. Nevertheless, we've had heavy volume selloffs, followed by heavy volume upthrusts. The pullbacks have

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-74008868779054948342008-01-29T22:15:00.000-08:002008-01-30T00:11:11.802-08:00

Investors can't help but speculate on the various if-thens associated with what the Fed does and says and what an investor or trader should or shouldn't do in response or anticipation. The conventional wisdom goes like this: Since the bond market is discounting nearly a 100% chance of a 50 bps cut in the Fed Funds target rate, anything less would be disappointing and lead to a market sell-off in

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-53706297769962355562008-01-27T22:31:00.000-08:002008-01-28T00:03:16.354-08:00

Put your helmet on as we watch the next few cards the dealer deals.With Asian markets falling hard post the U.S. market slide Friday, it's reasonable to expect a rough open for the U.S. markets whether or not Asian markets close well. An impressive intraday rebound in Asia would certainly be constructive; nevertheless, 4% plus slides in developed market indexes are also certain to inject doubt

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4765615659612542989.post-4350540888778732182008-01-23T21:04:00.000-08:002008-01-23T23:11:22.129-08:00

The obvious questions that all market watchers almost instinctively ask after action like today is: Is this "the" bottom and what should I do now? Whether or not this is "the" big one is less important than what to do now. Noone can know for sure that this was an 87' type major low, the new volatility paradigm or simply the mother or all oversold bounces?Whatever the case, I think it makes

Allen Phatimerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00242135697558540162noreply@blogger.com1